Independent Research
Research on the business economics, bottlenecks, and value chains behind critical technologies.
Featured Analysis
Chinese AI has moved beyond the DeepSeek cost shock. Kimi K3, Qwen3.8, DeepSeek V4 and Tencent’s Hy4 show a broader ecosystem narrowing the model gap while China builds its own compute, cloud and capital…
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CXMT’s listing gives China’s largest DRAM maker far more capital to expand. Its near-term impact, however, will be felt more in China’s…
AI data centers are changing construction economics as high-density power, liquid cooling, long-lead equipment and skilled trades become new bottlenecks.
The Federal Reserve controls the overnight policy rate, but the long end of the Treasury curve increasingly reflects fiscal supply, term premium…
Research
Industry structure, capacity, bottlenecks, technology transitions, value chains, and profit pools.
Chinese AI has moved beyond the DeepSeek cost shock. Kimi K3, Qwen3.8, DeepSeek V4 and Tencent’s Hy4 show a broader ecosystem narrowing…
AI data centers are changing construction economics as high-density power, liquid cooling, long-lead equipment and skilled trades become new bottlenecks.
Global esports is still expanding, but its next phase will not be defined by one country replacing another. China’s existing scale, India’s…
Research
Earnings power, operating drivers, competitive position, capital allocation, and implied expectations.
CXMT’s listing gives China’s largest DRAM maker far more capital to expand. Its near-term impact, however, will be felt more in China’s…
SpaceX dominates launch and Starlink now earns material profit, but launch remains R&D-intensive. Its long-term lead depends on converting scale into recurring…
Samsung Electronics has moved from an earnings recovery into a period of record profitability, driven overwhelmingly by memory. The more important question…
Research
Macroeconomic and financial mechanisms such as rates, FX, liquidity, policy, and capital flows.
The Federal Reserve controls the overnight policy rate, but the long end of the Treasury curve increasingly reflects fiscal supply, term premium…
AI remains early in enterprise diffusion even as technical capability and infrastructure investment accelerate. That does not make the sector macro-independent: interest…
Research
Maps, diagrams, public-data briefs, value chains, and visual explainers designed to be useful and shareable.
General AI is absorbing more of the interface and reasoning layer. The durable software moat is moving deeper into domain data, permissions,…
AI optical demand extends far beyond fiber and transceivers. The most consequential constraints are concentrated in specialized lasers, photonic fabrication, precision packaging,…
Research Themes
Five core research franchises anchor the publication. A smaller Opportunities stream covers structurally interesting industries outside the core when the question is strong enough.
